New research from the EDHEC Infrastructure & Private Assets Research Institute examines the accuracy of private asset valuations using realised private equity and infrastructure equity exits across UK-listed investment trusts. The study analyses 333 individual exit transactions across 29 investment trusts between 2015 and 2026, using financial reporting and regulatory filings.

For each transaction, the exit price is compared with the last published and unaffected carrying value before the announced deal exit. This provides a measure of valuation accuracy through the uplift or discount at which private assets are ultimately realised relative to their most recently reported carrying value.

Valuations systematically understate exit prices

Across all 333 exits, the research finds that valuations systematically understate exit prices across both private equity and infrastructure. The mean exit price exceeded the prior carrying value by 32%, while the median uplift was 19%.

For private equity, the median uplift was 20% across 282 transactions. For private infrastructure, the research finds a comparable median uplift of approximately 23%.

Almost 80% of all exits were completed above the last reported carrying value, with the finding remaining consistent across investment trusts, time and buyer types, including both financial and strategic buyers.

Persistent uplifts and fair value

Under IFRS 13 and FRS 102, valuations of private assets should reflect an exit price as of the measurement date, rather than a conservative estimate.

Persistent uplifts of more than 20% over time and across managers are therefore not consistent with fair value principles. The research also finds that exits to financial buyers achieve similar exit uplifts to exits involving strategic acquirers.

This undermines the industry explanation that uplifts arise from identifying the right buyer.

A different environment since 2022

Exit uplifts have fallen since 2022 relative to the 2015–2021 period. For private equity, median exit uplifts declined from 23% to approximately 17.5%.

Exit proceeds relative to starting NAVs are also much lower, at approximately 10–15% compared with 25–50% in the earlier period. The inflation and interest-rate shock of 2022 led to a material widening of discounts to NAV. Infrastructure investment trusts, which had traded at a premium through 2021, now trade at meaningful discounts of approximately 10–20%. For private equity, discounts widened to 25–40% and remained wide through the first quarter of 2026.

Holding periods and exit uplifts

The research also finds that exit uplifts decline as holding periods increase. For assets held for less than three years, the median uplift was approximately 47%.

For assets held for more than seven years, the uplift declined to near zero.

The current environment is more affected by longer holding periods, which partly explains the compression in recent uplifts.

Assets acquired during 2020–2022 now face a lower-multiple exit market, potentially creating a risk of discounts at exit.

Implications beyond listed trusts

The valuation practices documented in the research reflect those of a large number of underlying private equity and infrastructure managers globally.

The implications therefore extend beyond the listed investment trusts examined in the study.

For defined contribution pension schemes and evergreen funds, which must strike frequent NAVs, systematic mispricing can transfer value between participants who transact and those who do not.

This represents a fiduciary concern and an increasingly pressing regulatory issue as private market access is extended to defined contribution plans.

Testing valuation accuracy against realised exits

By comparing realised exit prices with the most recently reported carrying values, the research provides a direct measure of private asset valuation accuracy.

The findings show a persistent historical pattern of valuations understating exit prices, while also showing that exit uplifts have compressed since 2022 and decline as holding periods increase.

📄Read EIPA’s full research.
The Exit Test: What a Decade of Realisations Reveals About Valuation Accuracy.